Reflections on 7 years of Trading
I started trading in July 2011. Tradeway told me that we were in an old tired bull and the bear was right around the corner and we needed to take all our money out of mutual funds and put them in cash before the bear hit any day. So we were in a squirrel or an old tired bull or a unual market situation for years. I am being serious for YEARS we were cautioned that the bottom would fall out at anytime. Interestingly enough in early 2016 the market had a decent drop and then fired up for what Tradeway would end up calling a bear market and then new bull market. This bull market announcement way officially made in February of 2017 one year after the new bull started. Thankfully the market continued to go up for an additional year before this most recent retracement. In Tradeways email from March 2017 David Mitchell wrote, “If you look at the archives of the ‘It’s a Zoo’ articles, and the Market Alerts, you will find that on March of 2009, I announced that we were in a new bull market, and in July, 2011, I announced we were about to have a bear market crash. Wall Street never acknowledged this, but it fell over 21%. All of these predictions were true, and actually, quite accurate.” I started trading in July 2011 so I remember this announcement where he said we were about to have a bear market crash but his March 2017 email was the first time I heard him state that it actually was a bear market crash. From July 2011 until at least 2015 we were still waiting for that bear market crash. Tradeway was still cautioning us that it could happen at anytime and they were not yet calling that July 2011 drop the bear. Of course hindsight is 20/20 and you can call that now but what I don’t think is completely honest is acting like you were saying that then when you weren’t back then. I have the Market alerts and insiders to prove it. For at least 4 more years Tradeway was waiting for that bear market that they are now saying happened in 2011. It’s just so interesting to trade with Tradeway for coming up on a decade and see how what they say at the moment things are happening is so very very different than what they will say about those same things in the market years later. Tradeway makes things sound very obvious and black and white about past events even though at the moment they were happening they had no idea what was going on just like everyone else. I’ve attached a picture of the S&P 500 for the years I have been trading. Everything seems so obvious in hind sight but living it is full of so many unknowns. What about all of you? Have any of you been trading for a while and have a bigger picture on what it is like to trade in all kinds of environments with all kinds of unknowns?